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Prediction for CME (2024-07-16T23:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-16T23:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32016/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. This was determined to likely be separate from CME: 2024-07-16T23:12Z. There were multiple source candidates for this CME, including the M1.9 flare and eruption from AR 3744 or an eruption with moving/opening field lines from AR 3751 around 2024-07-16T20:27Z as seen in SDO AIA 171/193. No clear CME arrival signature in solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-20T11:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:2024-07-17 07:49
Radial velocity (km/s): 393
Longitude (deg):10
Latitude (deg):-11
Half-angular width (deg):44

Notes:A very faint CME with the portion to the SW more easily visible. High confidence of arrival but very low confidence of sustained geoeffectiveness due to faint, slow and possible radial structure early on in event indicating more a shockwave than plasma ejecta. A very weak event. If its more shock than CME then induced activity will be brief maybe one or two Kp periods of 4 if anything.

Lead Time: 52.78 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2024-07-18T06:13Z

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